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Changing The Game:

 Scenario Development In Strategic Planning



"...scenario planning is more than a tool. It is a weapon to combat uncertainty, and the future will belong to companies and executives that wield it well. "

Wall Street Journal





  •  How to identify forces which can impact your organization's strategy

  • Going beyond forecasting, which is based on the past, to identifying trends that are likely to unfold

  • Approaching the future with the  ability to perceive  possible changes and being ready in advance to handle them.

  •  Developing your own radar system to continually scan the world.

  • Developing possible strategies, analyzing their implications  

  • Adaptive approaches to strategy

  • Creating a practical action plan for preparing your organization for the future

Program Overview


Major changes -- from the economy, competition, the political arena, social issues, and other areas -- surprise us every day, and it's hard to know how to cope with the uncertainty except by simply reacting to the surprises as best we can. It often seems that there is little else that can be done. But there is a technique that can be used successfully to prepare for the future -- Scenario Planning.

 Scenario planning is a decision-based method that is markedly different from traditional business planning. Instead of trying to predict or forecast the future, scenario planning helps organizations to think the "unthinkable," consider "what ifs," identify multiple divergent "plausible futures," determine what strategies could be the most effective, and then take positive action to address the future uncertainties.

 Changing the Game introduces the process and terminology of scenario planning and then takes the participants through a scenario-planning workshop based on their situation. The outcome is an action plan to address the organization's strategy in light of the scenarios developed.


Format and Learning Environment


The workshop will facilitate participants in identifying and developing:

  •  Driving Forces:  Forces that will impact their organization's strategy. Outcome will be four divergent scenarios defined by these forces. 

  •  Scenario End State:  Participants develop deep context-rich stories for the end state of two of their scenarios (the other two scenarios will be fully developed when they return to their organization).

  • Interim Scenario: An organization does not go from today to a point in the future instantaneously. Something happens in between. Using the same two scenarios, the participants further develop the scenario stories at approximately the halfway point on the timeline to their end state. 

  • Strategic Implications and Options: Participants test their organization's existing strategy (and possible new innovative strategies) through each of their interim and end state scenarios by looking at the key sources of customer value, the likely strategy of traditional and non-traditional competitors in the same scenarios among other issues.

Participants will finally create a strategic option and action list. This list and ongoing dialog about the scenarios, act as guides for the team. It helps them assess the effectiveness of their strategy - or need for innovation - as it plays out in the future.


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